Updated Oscar Predictions

So much has happened since our last update. Toronto put Julianne Moore at the top of the best actress category. Fury opened and proved it won't compete for Oscar. Gone Girl became a HUGE hit. So let's dive in.

(All predictions in likelyhood of getting nominated).

Best Film

Fury is out, added Into the Woods since the featurette dropped today is to die for. Gone Girl soldified its spot. I'm iffy about Foxcatcher but I'll keep it in for time being.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Selma
Foxcatcher

Alternates:
A Most Violent Year
Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Pike is rising with the huge box office of Gone Girl. Sight unseen so is Moore based on the HUGE buzz out of Toronto. Witherspoon is quiet till the movie opens in early December where she'll pick up more heat. Blunt is apparently the lead in Into the Woods. My vote - and hope - goes to Cotillard who is again fantastic in Two Days One Night.

Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Alternates:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night  
Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Actor

Who's #4 and #5? I can't stand Eastwood and the premise of that movie is so macho and ra-ra Americana that I'm hating sight unseen so I'm not adding. Yes I have biases. I'm certain on my top 3 and despite all pundits saying it's a stacked year I can hardly find 5 to get excited about. Wishing Jake Gylenhaal or the guys from Love is Strange had a chance.

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher


Alternates:
Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher    
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress

Our Grand Lady Meryl is getting nominated. For now I'm keeping her in this category since that's how she'll be campaigned but I think they'll want their favorite in the more prestigous category.

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman
Laura Dern - Wild


Alternates:
Jessica Chastain - Interstellar 
Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Boring as usual. Who is Miyavi? Maybe getting an answer to that question will make this category interesting. 

J K Simmons - Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice


Alternates:
Miyavi - Unbroken       
Robert Duvall - The Judge

Best Director

Will we have 2 women in the category for the first time? Not ready to call that yet.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Alejandro G Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game


Alternates: 
Angelina Jolie - Unbroken       
Ava DuVernay - Selma

Trying to forge away from Middle of Nowhere

Hardwick and Corinealdi in Middle of Nowhere

There is a scene in Middle of Nowhere where a mother and her two daughters sit down to have a meal and try to communicate. Years of despair and disappointment come bubbling to the surface and amicable family conversation can not be reached. The authenticity of this sad situation gobsmacked me in the face and I knew I was watching a great movie.

The film tells the story of Ruby (luminous Emayatzy Corinealdi) an LA nurse who works double shifts to live and pay the legal bills of her incarcerated husband (Omari Hardwick). It's also the story of her single mother sister (Edwina Findley), their mother (Lorraine Toussaint) and a bus driver ( David Oyelowo) who is sweet on Ruby. But mostly it's Ruby's story, how she came to where she is - giving up medical school to wait for her husband. And where she is going - can she make the choice to break free? It's not a love triangle but rather an exploration of stunted woman's choice to either go on or leading a semi life or make the choice to try for something better and scarier.

Writer director Ava DuVernay

The movie is the brain child of Ava DuVernay, who wrote, directed and even released the movie. She became the first African-American woman to win Best Director when the film debuted earlier this at the Sundance Film Festival. Hers is a major accomplishment - a quiet well observed and introspective screenplay. We get to spend a few weeks with these characters and their experiences jumped out to me as relateable and recognizable. While the movie takes painstaking lengths to get the experiences of women of incarcerated men right; to me it was more than just that one story.

As a director DuVernay coaxes out wonderful performances from her cast. Corinealdi is a real find. Ruby is a very quiet woman and Corinealdi imbues her with intelligence and world weariness but also makes you see the playful ingenue she can be or maybe was at some point. Another standout is Toussaint who is excellent at conveying years of disappointment with just a few looks. If there is a weak link it's Findley. It is as if she was in another movie that is not as good as the one I'm watching.


The story behind how DuVernay became a filmmaker and distributed her own movie is almost as fascinating as the story she presents onscreen. She used to be a publicist, then financed her first movie using $50,000 of her own savings. She formed a releasing company to ensure that her movie reaches black audiences who are looking for smart independent movies. It is encouraging that her voice is being heard and her movie seen.

Middle of Nowhere is a strong, emotionally resonant film full of lived in compelling performances. It announces Ava DuVernay as a major filmmaker.