Updated Oscar Predictions

So much has happened since our last update. Toronto put Julianne Moore at the top of the best actress category. Fury opened and proved it won't compete for Oscar. Gone Girl became a HUGE hit. So let's dive in.

(All predictions in likelyhood of getting nominated).

Best Film

Fury is out, added Into the Woods since the featurette dropped today is to die for. Gone Girl soldified its spot. I'm iffy about Foxcatcher but I'll keep it in for time being.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Selma
Foxcatcher

Alternates:
A Most Violent Year
Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Pike is rising with the huge box office of Gone Girl. Sight unseen so is Moore based on the HUGE buzz out of Toronto. Witherspoon is quiet till the movie opens in early December where she'll pick up more heat. Blunt is apparently the lead in Into the Woods. My vote - and hope - goes to Cotillard who is again fantastic in Two Days One Night.

Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Alternates:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night  
Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Actor

Who's #4 and #5? I can't stand Eastwood and the premise of that movie is so macho and ra-ra Americana that I'm hating sight unseen so I'm not adding. Yes I have biases. I'm certain on my top 3 and despite all pundits saying it's a stacked year I can hardly find 5 to get excited about. Wishing Jake Gylenhaal or the guys from Love is Strange had a chance.

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher


Alternates:
Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher    
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress

Our Grand Lady Meryl is getting nominated. For now I'm keeping her in this category since that's how she'll be campaigned but I think they'll want their favorite in the more prestigous category.

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman
Laura Dern - Wild


Alternates:
Jessica Chastain - Interstellar 
Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Boring as usual. Who is Miyavi? Maybe getting an answer to that question will make this category interesting. 

J K Simmons - Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice


Alternates:
Miyavi - Unbroken       
Robert Duvall - The Judge

Best Director

Will we have 2 women in the category for the first time? Not ready to call that yet.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Alejandro G Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game


Alternates: 
Angelina Jolie - Unbroken       
Ava DuVernay - Selma

Cate and Amy

Cate and Amy earlier this year on Golden Globes weekend

Tonight Amy Adams will present Cate Blanchett with Women in Film's Crystal award. I'm in love with the friendship between these two actresses at the top of their game. Remember after being nominees together at this year's Oscars Cate and Amy went on an excursion to tattoo parlour to celebrate Cate's win. Not sure if both got mementos but Cate definitely did. At the time I thought it was something in honor of their mutual friend and collaborator Phillip Seymour Hoffman. It seems though their friendship continues to blossom and I love it.

Cate named Amy, alongside producer Kathleen Kennedy as her industry idols;

"because they are brilliant at what they do - blending genius with practical application. But they are genuinely nurturing and enthusiastic about the work of others. They have subtle enduring panache".


Ladies I'm expecting Viola/Meryl levels of love and admiration from you tonight. Gimme.

Update: Alas the report from Variety must have been wrong because it was Laura Dern and not Amy that presented Cate with her award. Dern is rather lovely and heart breaking in the currently playing The Fault in Our Stars.

Dern & Blanchett at the WIF Crystal Award presentation

Final OSCAR Nominations Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. Here are my final nominations in the top 8 categories:

Best Picture

Everyone agrees on the top 4, they have had consistent support everywhere. So had Dallas and Nebraska. Wolf surged late and it has its passionate supporters. Those are probably our nominees. Her has lots of love among critics and possibly younger AMPAS members, Blue Jasmine was embraced by actors, PGA and costumers so it is in if we go to 9. Banks is falling but it could rally if we get 10 nominees.

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• Nebraska
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• Her
• Blue Jasmine
• Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Leo gets in instead of Redford whose fortunes have been falling since getting snubbed by SAG. The other 4 - Ejjiofor, Dern, McConaughey and Hanks - got consistent support. I'd be thrilled if Oscar Isaac surprises.

• Bruce Dern  - Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio  - The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor  - 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey  - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

For the most of the season it looked like 5 previous winners - Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock and Thompson would be this year's list. Then August:Osage County opened and Meryl was pretty much dissed by everyone. Maybe there is such a thing as "Meryl fatigue". Adams will benefit from that : they love her and she's in an ascending likely best picture nominee.

• Amy Adams - American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett  - Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock - Gravity
• Judi Dench - Philomena
• Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Director

For the unique and beguiling world he created in Her, Spike Jonze will join the directors of the top 4 likely best picture nominees.

• Alfonso Cuaron  - Gravity
• Paul Greengrass  - Captain Phillips
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell - American Hustle

Supporting Actor

Gandolfini will surprise. Members will slip in the disk for Enough Said and find how sublime, funny and touching it is. And they will scribble Gandolfini's name on their ballots instead of Bradley Cooper and / or Jonah Hill. Bruhl is the only bright spot in his movie and will benefit from consistent mentions throughout the season. The other 3, Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, are in likely best picture nominees and have wide support.

• Daniel Bruhl - Rush
• Barhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
• Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
• James Gandolfini - Enough Said
• Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress

Similar to Adams and DiCaprio I'm relying on the surge evidenced by a BAFTA nomination to predict Hawkins. Plus her movie was embraced by PGA and usually a dominant lead performance will carry a supporting one on its coattails. It happened to Ethan Hawke in Training Day and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. If Meryl can't make it I don't see how Roberts does.

• Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb - Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Bob Nelson - Nebraska
• David O. Russell and Eric Singer - American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
• Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope - Philomena
• Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
• John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
• Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street

Her or All about the High Waist Pants

Phoenix with all those pants behind him

Spike Jonze's Her is unique. It is unlike any other movie I've seen this year - or any year for that matter. It is aesthetically beautiful, succeeding in building a complete "new" world. Architecture, clothes and above all how people communicate with each other. And it doesn't feel the need to fill you in on this world with tiring exposition. The viewer just discovers it as the movie goes along.

Set in Los Angeles sometime in the near future, it tells  the story of a lonely divorced man, Theodore Twombly (Joaquin Phoenix) who falls in love with his "computer" or as it's called in the movie operating system that calls itself Samantha, played by the disembodied voice of Scarlett Johannson. The story features Theodore's interactions with his best friend Amy (Amy Adams), his ex wife (Rooney Mara) and one disastrous date with a unhinged woman (Olivia Wilde).

The movie is funny, sad, lyrical, honest, gorgeous, all at once. It works on so many levels and is compulsively watchable and enchanting at all times. What I loved about it is that it worked as a reflection of dating in this age where we interact online and meet people virtually first. Online chemistry doesn't always translate to real life, to state the obvious. We project huge fantasies into others, setting ourselves up for huge disappointments. Her riffs brilliantly on this theme. From the phone sex encounter that goes wrong - "Choke me with the dead cat" must be the funniest line in a 2013 movie - to the date with Wilde's character to the love story Theodore and Samantha .

Phoenix and Mara in happier times

The film also flashes back brilliantly to Theodore's past marriage. In a few very economical scenes it gives us that relationship and what it means to fall in love young and grow up together but grow apart as a result of growing up. It illuminates how every time you fall in love you carry baggage from previous relationships and that that is not a bad thing. The juxtaposition between the old relationship and the new one with Samantha is what I loved most. Theodore is able to understand what happened in the past and his ex - played brilliantly by Mara in an obvious homage to Jonze's ex Sofia Coppola - has a strong reaction to the implausible love between a man and his OS. She is angry, hurt and of course bewildered but mostly understands why Theodore loves Samantha. While it's very brief this is most realistic relationship in the movie. Theodore talks about it so eloquently and I couldn't help but wonder if this is an olive branch from Jonze to Coppola.

All the actors are impeccable. I wasn't a huge fan of Phoenix's "look at me" big acting in The Master despite admiring the commitment. He's very different here, introspective, quite, funny and definitely more affecting. Adams is lovely as a woman discovering more about herself and Mara is giving possibly her most recognizably honest performance. Johansson does all she can to create a character with her voice and succeeds. Although part of me wishes we didn't get such a recognizable voice to play this part.

Production design, cinematography and costumes are all top notch. I particularly liked the costumes, very beautiful and fit the world the movie was trying to create. All hail high waist pants!

While I think it's a beautiful unique world and story that I know I will visit many more times, I don't think it's an unqualified success. While part of the resolution is fantastic I couldn't relate to some aspects of the sci-fi love story. I admired Jonze's attempt to create Theodore and Samantha on equal footing but didn't entirely relate to the latter's arc. It works best as a story about growing up and discovering more about ourselves and what that does to our relationships. Theodore, his ex, Samantha and Amy all grow up resulting in them reevaluating their relationships.

Is it Hair or American Hustle

American Hustle is big and shiny and has enough interesting elements that it made me think it was a good movie. But after two days of rumination I now think it doesn't quite jell together as a fully formed piece despite a few interesting vignettes.

As for the performances they are a mixed bag. Bradley Cooper is plain bad despite having a full and interesting character arc. Although he has one great bit - a moment of indignant triumph. Amy Adams can't make sense of a terribly underwritten part, it might possibly be the worst she's ever been on screen. I was hugely disappointed in Adams as I usually like her. Where's the fire from her previous collaboration with Russell in The Fighter? Christian Bale was all accent, gut and hair (or lack there of), exterior and surprisingly thin non-affecting performance.

Faring better are Jennifer Lawrence and Jeremy Renner. Lawrence's magnetism rises above the meandering script to provide a couple of very entertaining scenes. She is bombastic and blows off even the usually intense Bale in their scenes together. Renner underplays to success and his scenes with Elizabeth Rohm, who plays his wife, have an endearing casual warmth.

The movie was still watchable despite being more bad than good. Best would be to find Lawrence's couple of scenes - including the lip lock with Adams and her over the top rendition of "Live and Let Die" - on youtube. Or just look at pictures; the hair is the most interesting element after all.

Oscar Season Chat : Best Supporting Actress

Jose and I talk about Best Supporting Actress, as we do at this time of the year.

Oprah in The Butler

Murtada: So Jose our favorite time of the year, Awards Season is almost here. Can’t wait to see all the couture gowns but let’s start with who we think is going to be invited. I think most prognosticators agree on Oprah Winfrey (The Butler) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) for best supporting actress. I loved Oprah and thought she was the best thing in her movie. She was surprisingly subtle and gave a fun flirty – dare I say it – even sexy performance. While it’s hard to suppress her larger than life persona and the baggage that brings with, I thought she was convincing as an everyday woman. She even gets a big Oscar clip moment – you know the slap heard around all the movie screens “everything you are and everything you have is because of that butler”. Lee Daniels is really a fantastic actress director – Monique, Gabby, Nicole and now Oprah, who knew?

As for Lupita a she is what everybody wants to talk about the minute her movie ends. It’s a great part – sympathetic, soulful and very touching – but her performance is fantastic too. And let’s not forget the Cinderella factor – everybody loves a newcomer who just hits it out of the park. I think she can go all the way, and if she starts winning early there is no stopping her.

So what are your thoughts on Oprah and Lupita? Who else do you think will be nominated?

Jose: Unlike the rest of the world I simply don’t get Oprah. I never got her as a celebrity and I certainly don’t get her as an actress. Other than respecting her for being a powerful woman, I don’t see what’s so special about her and I was once again scratching my head about what was so special about her in this movie. My major problem is that to me she never stopped being Oprah (it didn’t help that at one point a woman screamed “show that ratchet bitch, Oprah!” to the screen while everyone else cheered) and therefore, if everyone in the theater was thinking the same, I can’t consider it good acting. She distracted me from the story more than anything.

Lupita is perfect and there’s nothing more I can say about her without gushing.  I guess the most surprising thing about her performance is that it’s her first film! Apparently Yale trains great actors…I have never liked predicting who will be nominated, there are people who do this much better (and care more about it too) so I’ll have to plead the fifth for that one. Now if you asked me who were my favorites that would be a game I’d like even more…

Nyong'o and Woodard in 12 Years a Slave

Murtada: I like predicting so I’ll predict one more: June Squibb in Nebraska. I personally didn’t care much for the performance and found it one note. However she gets the best lines and wrings genuine hearty laughs out of them so she’s in. And another Cinderella story albeit a different one – the veteran toiling away on the sidelines for too long until she finally gets a big part.

But let’s talk favorites; we both loved Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine – her “curtsie” moment when introduced to Alec Baldwin is an example of a gem of a performance full of such quirky, lovely moments. She managed to be noticed against the full force of Cate’s dominating Jasmine. Lea Seydoux – sex on a stick in Blue is the Warmest Color and Alfre Woodard providing the only bit of levity in 12 Years and nailing her one scene with a funny and lived in performance. 12 Years is chock full of fantastic performances including Adepero Oduye who I thought was a bit too hysterical the first time I saw it. However by my second viewing I was impressed by the honesty she brought to her deep despair. Also Julianne Moore finally waking up from her long nap of a decade of uninspiring performances to bring heart and soul to Don Jon. Clearly JGL inspires her.

Your turn to gush about some lovely ladies……..

Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

Jose: I’ve yet to see Nebraska so I’ll hold my thoughts on June for now. I see your Alfre and raise you a Sarah Paulson. Her performance was absolutely chilling and she’s been on such a roll lately with Game Change and all those awful American Horror Story-s where she’s the only one worried in seeing beyond camp and delivering performances with any real human traits.

In terms of awards, I don’t think any of my favorites in anything (other than Queen Cate) will be nominated for anything this year, so indulge me as I stray from awards specific talk, into favorites of the year talk...I loved, loved, loved Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives (the scene in the restaurant!), Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers Club (the only one who wasn’t “ACTING!” in that movie), Amy Adams in Her, Joanna Scanlan in The Invisible Woman (weeks later I can’t stop thinking about her character), Michaela Watkins in In a World..., Vera Farmiga in The Conjuring (my go-to exorcist from now on), Janet McTeer in Hannah Arendt, Emma Watson in The Bling Ring and Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station (talk about someone who can do a lot with a small part) with my absolute favorite so far this year being Cameron Diaz in The Counselor.

But yeah, the number of nominees coming out of that pool will be minus all of them, except for Octavia maybe...Granted, I’ve yet to see Julia and J.Law in their movies and I’m expecting them to impress me as usual.

Murtada : I'm excited for American Hustle and August Osage County too. Although I’m more about Margo Martindale maybe finally finding a fantastic big screen role. Also Naomie Harris got a lot of raves in Toronto but I can’t say I’m looking forward to Mandela as that trailer is dullsville but I hope it leads to bigger things for her.  And how could you not mention your girl Rooney Mara in Her , her Sofia Coppola was dead on. I think it’s a great year for this category.

Any final thoughts?

Jose: I love Rooney but even I am objective sometimes. I did forget to mention how impressed I was by Eva Mendes in “The Place Beyond the Pines” though.  I can’t think of anything other than that...