Oscar Nominations Predictions

The big question this year is Selma. Much has been made about its lack of love by awards bodies so far. Screeners weren't sent. It opened too late. Paramount's priority was Interstellar. I think it boils down to the obvious, people who vote for these things just don't care that much for the movie. They might admire what it says about the Civil Rights movement or its relevance to what's happening around; but there's no passion to vote it best of the year. I'm thinking it gets Best Pic and Best Song.

Elsewhere I excpect Ralph Fiennes to make it instead of Steve Carrell/David Oyelowo/Bradley Cooper. Jennifer Aniston will be an Oscar nominee and AMPAS will continue ignoring Marion Cotillard's superior career post her 2007 win.

I'm predicting that Emma Stone, Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton and Wes Anderson will become Oscar nominees for the first time while Meryl Streep will get her 19th nomination.

Pedictions I'm not sure of include Wild for Adapted Screenplay, Morten Tyldum for Directing, Rene Russo for Supporting Actress and Timbuktu in Foreign Language Film.


Best Picture
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Boyhood
04. Gone Girl
05. The Grand Budapest Hotel
06. The Imitation Game
07. Selma
08. The Theory of Everything
09. Whiplash

Best Directing
01. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
02. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
03. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
05. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Best Actor in a Leading Role
01. Michael Keaton, Birdman
02. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
04. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
05. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress in a Leading Role
01. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
03. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
04. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
05. Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
01. Edward Norton, Birdman
02. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
03. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
04. Robert Duvall, The Judge
05. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
01. Emma Stone, Birdman
02. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
03. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
05. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. Foxcatcher
04. The Grand Budapest Hotel
05. Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Imitation Game
03. The Theory of Everything
04. Whiplash
05. Wild

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Best Animated Feature
01. Big Hero 6
02. The Boxtrolls
03. How to Train Your Dragon 2
04. The LEGO Movie
05. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Foreign Language Film
01. Ida
02. Force Majeure
03. Leviathan
04. Timbuktu
05. Wild Tales

Best Documentary Feature
01. CITIZENFOUR
02. Last Days in Vietnam
03. Keep On Keeping'On
04. Life Itself
05. Virunga

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Best Music (Original Score)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. The Imitation Game
04. Interstellar
05. The Theory of Everything

Best Music (Original Song)
01. "Lost Stars", Begin Again
02. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
03. "Everything Is Awesome", The LEGO Movie
04. "Mercy Is", Noah 
05. "Glory", Selma 

Best Film Editing
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. The Imitation Game
05. Whiplash

Best Cinematography
01. Birdman
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Ida
04. Mr. Turner
05. Unbroken 

Best Art Direction 
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Interstellar
04. Into the Woods
05. Mr. Turner 

Best Costume Design
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Into the Woods
04. Mr. Turner
05. Selma

Best Makeup
01. Foxcatcher
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Sound Mixing
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Into the Woods
05. Unbroken
06. Whiplash

Best Sound Editing
01. American Sniper
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar 
05. Unbroken

Best Visual Effects
01. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar
05. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Updated Oscar Predictions

So much has happened since our last update. Toronto put Julianne Moore at the top of the best actress category. Fury opened and proved it won't compete for Oscar. Gone Girl became a HUGE hit. So let's dive in.

(All predictions in likelyhood of getting nominated).

Best Film

Fury is out, added Into the Woods since the featurette dropped today is to die for. Gone Girl soldified its spot. I'm iffy about Foxcatcher but I'll keep it in for time being.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Selma
Foxcatcher

Alternates:
A Most Violent Year
Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Pike is rising with the huge box office of Gone Girl. Sight unseen so is Moore based on the HUGE buzz out of Toronto. Witherspoon is quiet till the movie opens in early December where she'll pick up more heat. Blunt is apparently the lead in Into the Woods. My vote - and hope - goes to Cotillard who is again fantastic in Two Days One Night.

Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Alternates:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night  
Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Actor

Who's #4 and #5? I can't stand Eastwood and the premise of that movie is so macho and ra-ra Americana that I'm hating sight unseen so I'm not adding. Yes I have biases. I'm certain on my top 3 and despite all pundits saying it's a stacked year I can hardly find 5 to get excited about. Wishing Jake Gylenhaal or the guys from Love is Strange had a chance.

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher


Alternates:
Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher    
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress

Our Grand Lady Meryl is getting nominated. For now I'm keeping her in this category since that's how she'll be campaigned but I think they'll want their favorite in the more prestigous category.

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman
Laura Dern - Wild


Alternates:
Jessica Chastain - Interstellar 
Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Boring as usual. Who is Miyavi? Maybe getting an answer to that question will make this category interesting. 

J K Simmons - Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice


Alternates:
Miyavi - Unbroken       
Robert Duvall - The Judge

Best Director

Will we have 2 women in the category for the first time? Not ready to call that yet.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Alejandro G Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game


Alternates: 
Angelina Jolie - Unbroken       
Ava DuVernay - Selma

A Birdman walks Into the Woods

Blunt with James Corden in Into the Woods

These two movies have nothing in common except they both dropped trailers today. And they star two actresses we are very fond of around these parts and who we think have yet to show their best. We are talking about charm machines Emily Blunt and Emma Stone.

Blunt is first up. We fell in love hard after The Devil Wears Prada (2006). Eight years later that remains our favorite performance of hers. Yes she was a charismatic and believable action star just this summer in Edge of Tomorrow (2014). But no movie has yet built on that promise in Prada. She's the number #1 reason we are excited about Into the Woods (2014). And that's a tall order since we consider Sondheim and Streep Gods. She's not in much of this teaser trailer, but we remain optimistic since The Baker's Wife is a plum part.



And now it's time for another lovely lady, Emma Stone.

Love this shot of Stone in Birdman

Stone has also not delivered on the promise of her early work in Easy A (2010). But at least she has become a global superstar thanks to the Spiderman reboot. She even made us watch those 2 movies just to see her. Stone is the type of actress whose snappy line delivery, warmth and chemistry with co-stars (she sizzles opposite Andrew Garfield) makes us wish Billy Wilder was still alive. Give us that The Apartment (1960) remake we don't need but would love if it starred Stone.

We are hoping her 1-2-3 punch of collaborating with Woody Allen, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Cameron Crowe will gave her the showcase she deserves. Well #1 didn't quite work out. While she was charming and got her own way with Allen's lines in Magic in the Moonlight (2014), the movie was minor Allen at best. Still there's his next movie in 12 more months. #3 was postponed to next year. So Mr. Inarritu our hopes are on your very capable shoulders.

Below is the second trailer from Birdman  and Stone gets to yell at Michael Keaton. Reportedly she's playing his recovering addict daughter. So maybe she gets to show range? Maybe she even gets her first Oscar nod? Hopes are high over here.




We have faith in both Blunt and Stone. Do you? Are you looking forward to these movies? What did you think of the trailers? Tell all in the comments.

Cate and Amy

Cate and Amy earlier this year on Golden Globes weekend

Tonight Amy Adams will present Cate Blanchett with Women in Film's Crystal award. I'm in love with the friendship between these two actresses at the top of their game. Remember after being nominees together at this year's Oscars Cate and Amy went on an excursion to tattoo parlour to celebrate Cate's win. Not sure if both got mementos but Cate definitely did. At the time I thought it was something in honor of their mutual friend and collaborator Phillip Seymour Hoffman. It seems though their friendship continues to blossom and I love it.

Cate named Amy, alongside producer Kathleen Kennedy as her industry idols;

"because they are brilliant at what they do - blending genius with practical application. But they are genuinely nurturing and enthusiastic about the work of others. They have subtle enduring panache".


Ladies I'm expecting Viola/Meryl levels of love and admiration from you tonight. Gimme.

Update: Alas the report from Variety must have been wrong because it was Laura Dern and not Amy that presented Cate with her award. Dern is rather lovely and heart breaking in the currently playing The Fault in Our Stars.

Dern & Blanchett at the WIF Crystal Award presentation

Final OSCAR Nominations Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. Here are my final nominations in the top 8 categories:

Best Picture

Everyone agrees on the top 4, they have had consistent support everywhere. So had Dallas and Nebraska. Wolf surged late and it has its passionate supporters. Those are probably our nominees. Her has lots of love among critics and possibly younger AMPAS members, Blue Jasmine was embraced by actors, PGA and costumers so it is in if we go to 9. Banks is falling but it could rally if we get 10 nominees.

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• Nebraska
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• Her
• Blue Jasmine
• Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Leo gets in instead of Redford whose fortunes have been falling since getting snubbed by SAG. The other 4 - Ejjiofor, Dern, McConaughey and Hanks - got consistent support. I'd be thrilled if Oscar Isaac surprises.

• Bruce Dern  - Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio  - The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor  - 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey  - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

For the most of the season it looked like 5 previous winners - Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock and Thompson would be this year's list. Then August:Osage County opened and Meryl was pretty much dissed by everyone. Maybe there is such a thing as "Meryl fatigue". Adams will benefit from that : they love her and she's in an ascending likely best picture nominee.

• Amy Adams - American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett  - Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock - Gravity
• Judi Dench - Philomena
• Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Director

For the unique and beguiling world he created in Her, Spike Jonze will join the directors of the top 4 likely best picture nominees.

• Alfonso Cuaron  - Gravity
• Paul Greengrass  - Captain Phillips
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell - American Hustle

Supporting Actor

Gandolfini will surprise. Members will slip in the disk for Enough Said and find how sublime, funny and touching it is. And they will scribble Gandolfini's name on their ballots instead of Bradley Cooper and / or Jonah Hill. Bruhl is the only bright spot in his movie and will benefit from consistent mentions throughout the season. The other 3, Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, are in likely best picture nominees and have wide support.

• Daniel Bruhl - Rush
• Barhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
• Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
• James Gandolfini - Enough Said
• Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress

Similar to Adams and DiCaprio I'm relying on the surge evidenced by a BAFTA nomination to predict Hawkins. Plus her movie was embraced by PGA and usually a dominant lead performance will carry a supporting one on its coattails. It happened to Ethan Hawke in Training Day and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. If Meryl can't make it I don't see how Roberts does.

• Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb - Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Bob Nelson - Nebraska
• David O. Russell and Eric Singer - American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
• Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope - Philomena
• Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
• John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
• Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street