Oscar!

It's that time again. Here are my final Oscar predictions.

The best picture / best director split will happen again for the third year running. With all the love Birdman got from the industry via the guilds awards I think it will win picture and Richard Linklater's 12 years odyssey will be seen as a unique and major accomplishment so he wins best director.

Best Picture
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood

Best Directing
Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Yes Redmayne won almost every precursor but it a feeling I have that they'd want to reward the veteran.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

My vote goes to Cotillard for a performance that will stand test of time and be studied by actors seeking to understand how to become one with  character. Moore will win and is a worthy winner.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Alternate: Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Mark Ruffalo is head and shoulders above the rest here. He gives the classic supporting performance in that he deepens the leads' performances by bringing a grounded warmth that the movie doesn't work without. But Simmons it is. Whatever Teller ruled that movie but flashy wins. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alternate: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Alternate: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash


Best Animated Feature
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Ida
Alternate: Timbuktu

Best Documentary Feature
Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga

Best Documentary Short
Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Alternate: Joanna

Best Short Film (Animated)
Winner: The Dam Keeper
Alternate: A Single Life 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Winner: The Phone Call
Alternate: Parvaneh


Best Music (Original Score)
Winner: The Theory of Everything
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Music (Original Song)
Winner: "Glory", Selma
Alternate: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me

Best Film Editing
Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

Best Cinematography
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Art Direction
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: The Imitation Game

Best Costume Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Into the Woods

Best Makeup
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Foxcatcher

Best Sound Mixing
Winner: Whiplash
Alternate: American Sniper

Best Sound Editing
Winner: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman

Best Visual Effects
Winner: Interstellar 
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Celebrating OSCAR's Best Actress

Marion, Reese, Julianne, Rosamund and Felicity

All year there's been talk that this is a very weak for the best actress category at the Oscars. Bullshit! There were many fantastic performances, most of them in many movies not considered by Academy members but even the 5 Oscar agreed on are a worthy bunch. Give or take a Jones. Let's look at why this is a fantastic lineup:

Marion Cotillard as Sandra 

 A performance for the ages from an actress at her peak at exactly the time when she's starting to be acknowledged as best of her generation.

Rosamund Pike as Amazing Amy

A star making performance and a character that we will be talking about for years in Amazing Amy.

Julianne Moore as Alice Howland

Another arguable best of her generation capping off years of fantastic character work and finally winning awards that have eluded her so far.

Reese Witherspoon as Cheryl Strayed

 A major star cementing her comeback with a critical and commercial hit that announces her as an influential producer.

Felicity Jones as Jane Hawking

Oh and one more. While I didn't like the movie or the performance it is not an embarrassing inclusion as would have been with that other one we avoided. Ahem Aniston.

The top 2 two in this list are my favorite of the year. All hail the continued reign of Cotillard as the best screen actress nowadays and Pike coming into full movie stardom. And I liked Moore and Witherspoon and would be so happy when as expected Moore wins on February 22. The woman behind Cathy Whitaker, Laura Brown and Amber Waves deserves to be an Oscar winner. 

As for other performances I liked, maybe Scarlett Johnasson (Under the Skin), Emily Blunt (Edge of Tomorrow/Into the Woods), Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Beyond the Lights) and Essie Davis (The Babadook) will be nominees one day.

Golden Globes Predictions

We are bound to see a repeat of the above image. I'm sure. Here are my predictions :


Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: The Imitation Game

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Alternate: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Alternate: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Alternate: Jennifer Aniston, Cake

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Alternate: Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alternate: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Alternate: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Director 
Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejando Innaritu, Birdman

Best Screenplay 
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: The Lego Movie
Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon 2

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Ida
Alternate: Force Majeure

Best Original Score
Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: The Theory of Everything

Best Original Song
Winner: Glory, Selma
Alternate: Mercy Is, Noah

Updated Oscar Predictions

So much has happened since our last update. Toronto put Julianne Moore at the top of the best actress category. Fury opened and proved it won't compete for Oscar. Gone Girl became a HUGE hit. So let's dive in.

(All predictions in likelyhood of getting nominated).

Best Film

Fury is out, added Into the Woods since the featurette dropped today is to die for. Gone Girl soldified its spot. I'm iffy about Foxcatcher but I'll keep it in for time being.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Selma
Foxcatcher

Alternates:
A Most Violent Year
Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Pike is rising with the huge box office of Gone Girl. Sight unseen so is Moore based on the HUGE buzz out of Toronto. Witherspoon is quiet till the movie opens in early December where she'll pick up more heat. Blunt is apparently the lead in Into the Woods. My vote - and hope - goes to Cotillard who is again fantastic in Two Days One Night.

Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Alternates:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night  
Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Actor

Who's #4 and #5? I can't stand Eastwood and the premise of that movie is so macho and ra-ra Americana that I'm hating sight unseen so I'm not adding. Yes I have biases. I'm certain on my top 3 and despite all pundits saying it's a stacked year I can hardly find 5 to get excited about. Wishing Jake Gylenhaal or the guys from Love is Strange had a chance.

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher


Alternates:
Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher    
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress

Our Grand Lady Meryl is getting nominated. For now I'm keeping her in this category since that's how she'll be campaigned but I think they'll want their favorite in the more prestigous category.

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman
Laura Dern - Wild


Alternates:
Jessica Chastain - Interstellar 
Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Boring as usual. Who is Miyavi? Maybe getting an answer to that question will make this category interesting. 

J K Simmons - Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice


Alternates:
Miyavi - Unbroken       
Robert Duvall - The Judge

Best Director

Will we have 2 women in the category for the first time? Not ready to call that yet.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Alejandro G Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game


Alternates: 
Angelina Jolie - Unbroken       
Ava DuVernay - Selma

Oscar Season Chat : Best Supporting Actress

Jose and I talk about Best Supporting Actress, as we do at this time of the year.

Oprah in The Butler

Murtada: So Jose our favorite time of the year, Awards Season is almost here. Can’t wait to see all the couture gowns but let’s start with who we think is going to be invited. I think most prognosticators agree on Oprah Winfrey (The Butler) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) for best supporting actress. I loved Oprah and thought she was the best thing in her movie. She was surprisingly subtle and gave a fun flirty – dare I say it – even sexy performance. While it’s hard to suppress her larger than life persona and the baggage that brings with, I thought she was convincing as an everyday woman. She even gets a big Oscar clip moment – you know the slap heard around all the movie screens “everything you are and everything you have is because of that butler”. Lee Daniels is really a fantastic actress director – Monique, Gabby, Nicole and now Oprah, who knew?

As for Lupita a she is what everybody wants to talk about the minute her movie ends. It’s a great part – sympathetic, soulful and very touching – but her performance is fantastic too. And let’s not forget the Cinderella factor – everybody loves a newcomer who just hits it out of the park. I think she can go all the way, and if she starts winning early there is no stopping her.

So what are your thoughts on Oprah and Lupita? Who else do you think will be nominated?

Jose: Unlike the rest of the world I simply don’t get Oprah. I never got her as a celebrity and I certainly don’t get her as an actress. Other than respecting her for being a powerful woman, I don’t see what’s so special about her and I was once again scratching my head about what was so special about her in this movie. My major problem is that to me she never stopped being Oprah (it didn’t help that at one point a woman screamed “show that ratchet bitch, Oprah!” to the screen while everyone else cheered) and therefore, if everyone in the theater was thinking the same, I can’t consider it good acting. She distracted me from the story more than anything.

Lupita is perfect and there’s nothing more I can say about her without gushing.  I guess the most surprising thing about her performance is that it’s her first film! Apparently Yale trains great actors…I have never liked predicting who will be nominated, there are people who do this much better (and care more about it too) so I’ll have to plead the fifth for that one. Now if you asked me who were my favorites that would be a game I’d like even more…

Nyong'o and Woodard in 12 Years a Slave

Murtada: I like predicting so I’ll predict one more: June Squibb in Nebraska. I personally didn’t care much for the performance and found it one note. However she gets the best lines and wrings genuine hearty laughs out of them so she’s in. And another Cinderella story albeit a different one – the veteran toiling away on the sidelines for too long until she finally gets a big part.

But let’s talk favorites; we both loved Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine – her “curtsie” moment when introduced to Alec Baldwin is an example of a gem of a performance full of such quirky, lovely moments. She managed to be noticed against the full force of Cate’s dominating Jasmine. Lea Seydoux – sex on a stick in Blue is the Warmest Color and Alfre Woodard providing the only bit of levity in 12 Years and nailing her one scene with a funny and lived in performance. 12 Years is chock full of fantastic performances including Adepero Oduye who I thought was a bit too hysterical the first time I saw it. However by my second viewing I was impressed by the honesty she brought to her deep despair. Also Julianne Moore finally waking up from her long nap of a decade of uninspiring performances to bring heart and soul to Don Jon. Clearly JGL inspires her.

Your turn to gush about some lovely ladies……..

Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

Jose: I’ve yet to see Nebraska so I’ll hold my thoughts on June for now. I see your Alfre and raise you a Sarah Paulson. Her performance was absolutely chilling and she’s been on such a roll lately with Game Change and all those awful American Horror Story-s where she’s the only one worried in seeing beyond camp and delivering performances with any real human traits.

In terms of awards, I don’t think any of my favorites in anything (other than Queen Cate) will be nominated for anything this year, so indulge me as I stray from awards specific talk, into favorites of the year talk...I loved, loved, loved Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives (the scene in the restaurant!), Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers Club (the only one who wasn’t “ACTING!” in that movie), Amy Adams in Her, Joanna Scanlan in The Invisible Woman (weeks later I can’t stop thinking about her character), Michaela Watkins in In a World..., Vera Farmiga in The Conjuring (my go-to exorcist from now on), Janet McTeer in Hannah Arendt, Emma Watson in The Bling Ring and Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station (talk about someone who can do a lot with a small part) with my absolute favorite so far this year being Cameron Diaz in The Counselor.

But yeah, the number of nominees coming out of that pool will be minus all of them, except for Octavia maybe...Granted, I’ve yet to see Julia and J.Law in their movies and I’m expecting them to impress me as usual.

Murtada : I'm excited for American Hustle and August Osage County too. Although I’m more about Margo Martindale maybe finally finding a fantastic big screen role. Also Naomie Harris got a lot of raves in Toronto but I can’t say I’m looking forward to Mandela as that trailer is dullsville but I hope it leads to bigger things for her.  And how could you not mention your girl Rooney Mara in Her , her Sofia Coppola was dead on. I think it’s a great year for this category.

Any final thoughts?

Jose: I love Rooney but even I am objective sometimes. I did forget to mention how impressed I was by Eva Mendes in “The Place Beyond the Pines” though.  I can’t think of anything other than that...