Black Swan premiered early today at the Venice Film Festival. Early reaction is very good. Almost unanimous praise. The more interesting question to me is whether Natalie Portman is now a front runner for Best Actress. The trippy trailer proved that this movie is a great showcase for her. Now the reviews are following, even the ones that had problems with the movie liked her performance. If she wins an award in Venice she could become unstoppable. After all Helen Mirren's march to Oscar 4 years ago started with a win in Venice.
Not so fast. This year's roster is already crowded. There's the new ingenue in Jennifer Lawrence for Winter's Bone. The multiple nominated veterans from a bonafide art house hit in Julianne Moore and Annette Bening from The Kids Are Alright. Not mention movies being released later in the year for Oscar darlings like Anne Hathaway (Love and Other Drugs), Carey Mulligan (Never Let Me Go), indie stalwarts with confirmed festival buzz Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) and Lesley Manville (Another Year).
I say Portman, a former nominee for Closer, is very close to locking up the nomination not the win. Not yet anyway. But a bit of advise for Bening, the front runner now in my opinion, go out and rock the vote, play the Jeff Bridges card from last year and you might just win. So far she's been laying low, which might be a good strategy but not for long.
Who do you think will win? Vote in the poll:
