2017 Oscar Predictions

For once I am completely at peace with the biggest category, the only one that matters. Best Actress. If Emma Stone wins as expected, it'd be wonderful and exciting for an actor I've loved since Easy A. If Isabelle Huppert upsets, it would also be wonderful. Two great performances this year including one in my favourite film of the year, Things to Come.

Here are my final predictions:

Best Picture

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Moonlight

Best Director

Winner: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Alternate: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Winner: Denzel Washington, Fences

Alternate: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Winner: Emma Stone, La La Land

Alternate: Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Winner: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Alternate: Dev Patel, Lion

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Winner: Viola Davis, Fences

Alternate: Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)

Winner: Manchester by the Sea

Alternate: La La Land

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Winner: Moonlight

Alternate: Arrival

---

Best Animated Feature

Winner: Zootopia

Alternate: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner: The Salesman

Alternate: Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary Feature

Winner: I'm Not Your Negro

Alternate: O.J.: Made in America

Best Documentary Short

Winner: Joe's Violin

Alternate: The White Helmets

Best Short Film (Animated)

Winner: Piper

Alternate: Pearl

Best Short Film (Live Action)

Winner: La Femme et Le TGV

Alternate: Timecode

---

Best Music (Original Score)

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Jackie

Best Music (Original Song)

Winner:City of Stars, La La Land

Alternate: How Far I'll Go, Moana

Best Film Editing

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Arrival

Best Cinematography

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Lion

Best Art Direction

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Arrival

Best Costume Design

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Jackie

Best Makeup

Winner: Star Trek Beyond

Alternate: A Man Called Ove

Best Sound Mixing

Winner: La La Land

Alternate: Arrival

Best Sound Editing

Winner: Hacksaw Ridge

Alternate: La La Land

Best Visual Effects

Winner: The Jungle Book

Alternate: Kubo and the Two Strings

--

Busy away with Marion Cotillard, Eddie Redmayne and Robert Pattinson

The last month has been busy but off this blog. Like Tootsie with two personalities. One here. And One at The Film Experience.

I talked about Cate, Nicole & Keira doing stage all over the globe.

Welcomed Emily Watson away from the frumpy mothers she's played recently.

Worried about the release plans of Macbeth. Wondered what auteurs see in Robert Paatinson.

Waxed poetic about Elizabeth Debicki's costumes in U.N.C.L.E. And Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling's in La La Land.


Analyzed the posters and release plans of Beasts of No Nation. The first picture from A Bigger Splash and Eddie Redmayne's big fall Oscar campaign.

I've been busy. Read all of it here.

Irrationally Excited for this Duet

Stone & Phoenix in first still from Irrational Man

We are feeling this will be more Blue Jasmine than Magic in the Moonlight. Just a hunch. Of course Stone is a favorite here and something about Phoenix working with her and Woody Allen characters and dialogue spells magic to us.

We hear this has a Crimes & Misdemeanors vibe. And Stone and Phoenix are such opposing actors, extreme intensity vs effortless charm. It might be dynamite.

Hope we are right. Come at us July 24th.

Oscar!

It's that time again. Here are my final Oscar predictions.

The best picture / best director split will happen again for the third year running. With all the love Birdman got from the industry via the guilds awards I think it will win picture and Richard Linklater's 12 years odyssey will be seen as a unique and major accomplishment so he wins best director.

Best Picture
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood

Best Directing
Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Yes Redmayne won almost every precursor but it a feeling I have that they'd want to reward the veteran.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

My vote goes to Cotillard for a performance that will stand test of time and be studied by actors seeking to understand how to become one with  character. Moore will win and is a worthy winner.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Alternate: Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Mark Ruffalo is head and shoulders above the rest here. He gives the classic supporting performance in that he deepens the leads' performances by bringing a grounded warmth that the movie doesn't work without. But Simmons it is. Whatever Teller ruled that movie but flashy wins. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alternate: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Alternate: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash


Best Animated Feature
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Ida
Alternate: Timbuktu

Best Documentary Feature
Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga

Best Documentary Short
Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Alternate: Joanna

Best Short Film (Animated)
Winner: The Dam Keeper
Alternate: A Single Life 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Winner: The Phone Call
Alternate: Parvaneh


Best Music (Original Score)
Winner: The Theory of Everything
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Music (Original Song)
Winner: "Glory", Selma
Alternate: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me

Best Film Editing
Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

Best Cinematography
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Art Direction
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: The Imitation Game

Best Costume Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Into the Woods

Best Makeup
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Foxcatcher

Best Sound Mixing
Winner: Whiplash
Alternate: American Sniper

Best Sound Editing
Winner: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman

Best Visual Effects
Winner: Interstellar 
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Oscar Nominations Predictions

The big question this year is Selma. Much has been made about its lack of love by awards bodies so far. Screeners weren't sent. It opened too late. Paramount's priority was Interstellar. I think it boils down to the obvious, people who vote for these things just don't care that much for the movie. They might admire what it says about the Civil Rights movement or its relevance to what's happening around; but there's no passion to vote it best of the year. I'm thinking it gets Best Pic and Best Song.

Elsewhere I excpect Ralph Fiennes to make it instead of Steve Carrell/David Oyelowo/Bradley Cooper. Jennifer Aniston will be an Oscar nominee and AMPAS will continue ignoring Marion Cotillard's superior career post her 2007 win.

I'm predicting that Emma Stone, Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton and Wes Anderson will become Oscar nominees for the first time while Meryl Streep will get her 19th nomination.

Pedictions I'm not sure of include Wild for Adapted Screenplay, Morten Tyldum for Directing, Rene Russo for Supporting Actress and Timbuktu in Foreign Language Film.


Best Picture
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Boyhood
04. Gone Girl
05. The Grand Budapest Hotel
06. The Imitation Game
07. Selma
08. The Theory of Everything
09. Whiplash

Best Directing
01. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
02. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
03. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
05. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Best Actor in a Leading Role
01. Michael Keaton, Birdman
02. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
04. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
05. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress in a Leading Role
01. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
03. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
04. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
05. Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
01. Edward Norton, Birdman
02. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
03. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
04. Robert Duvall, The Judge
05. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
01. Emma Stone, Birdman
02. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
03. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
05. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. Foxcatcher
04. The Grand Budapest Hotel
05. Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Imitation Game
03. The Theory of Everything
04. Whiplash
05. Wild

---

Best Animated Feature
01. Big Hero 6
02. The Boxtrolls
03. How to Train Your Dragon 2
04. The LEGO Movie
05. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Foreign Language Film
01. Ida
02. Force Majeure
03. Leviathan
04. Timbuktu
05. Wild Tales

Best Documentary Feature
01. CITIZENFOUR
02. Last Days in Vietnam
03. Keep On Keeping'On
04. Life Itself
05. Virunga

---

Best Music (Original Score)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. The Imitation Game
04. Interstellar
05. The Theory of Everything

Best Music (Original Song)
01. "Lost Stars", Begin Again
02. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
03. "Everything Is Awesome", The LEGO Movie
04. "Mercy Is", Noah 
05. "Glory", Selma 

Best Film Editing
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. The Imitation Game
05. Whiplash

Best Cinematography
01. Birdman
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Ida
04. Mr. Turner
05. Unbroken 

Best Art Direction 
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Interstellar
04. Into the Woods
05. Mr. Turner 

Best Costume Design
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Into the Woods
04. Mr. Turner
05. Selma

Best Makeup
01. Foxcatcher
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Sound Mixing
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Into the Woods
05. Unbroken
06. Whiplash

Best Sound Editing
01. American Sniper
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar 
05. Unbroken

Best Visual Effects
01. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar
05. Transformers: Age of Extinction

First Stab at Oscar Nominations

As the Telluride Film Festival kicks off in Colorado, here is my stab at first guess Oscar Nominations. Presented in likelyhood to be nominated.

Best Film

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
The Theory of Everything
Fury

Alternates - A Most Violent Year, Into the Woods, Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Amy Adams - Big Eyes
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

Alternate - Julianne Moore - Maps to the Stars

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Steve Carrel - Foxcatcher
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Alternate  Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emily Blunt - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman

Alternate - Laura Dern - Wild       Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice
Tom Wilkinson - Selma
J K Simmons - Whiplash

Alternate - Robert Duvall - The Judge