Oscar!

It's that time again. Here are my final Oscar predictions.

The best picture / best director split will happen again for the third year running. With all the love Birdman got from the industry via the guilds awards I think it will win picture and Richard Linklater's 12 years odyssey will be seen as a unique and major accomplishment so he wins best director.

Best Picture
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood

Best Directing
Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Yes Redmayne won almost every precursor but it a feeling I have that they'd want to reward the veteran.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

My vote goes to Cotillard for a performance that will stand test of time and be studied by actors seeking to understand how to become one with  character. Moore will win and is a worthy winner.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Alternate: Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Mark Ruffalo is head and shoulders above the rest here. He gives the classic supporting performance in that he deepens the leads' performances by bringing a grounded warmth that the movie doesn't work without. But Simmons it is. Whatever Teller ruled that movie but flashy wins. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alternate: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Alternate: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash


Best Animated Feature
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Ida
Alternate: Timbuktu

Best Documentary Feature
Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga

Best Documentary Short
Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Alternate: Joanna

Best Short Film (Animated)
Winner: The Dam Keeper
Alternate: A Single Life 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Winner: The Phone Call
Alternate: Parvaneh


Best Music (Original Score)
Winner: The Theory of Everything
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Music (Original Song)
Winner: "Glory", Selma
Alternate: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me

Best Film Editing
Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

Best Cinematography
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Art Direction
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: The Imitation Game

Best Costume Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Into the Woods

Best Makeup
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Foxcatcher

Best Sound Mixing
Winner: Whiplash
Alternate: American Sniper

Best Sound Editing
Winner: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman

Best Visual Effects
Winner: Interstellar 
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Short Notes on Whiplash, Birdman and Nightcrawler

Here are shorts reviews of the last three movies I watched.

Whiplash

I was not looking forward to this movie. Thought it would be a hyper masculine, "what it means to be a man"story. I was burned pretty bad by a few of those. Yes I'm looking at you Lone Survivor and Out of the Furnace. And yes it was exactly that, but I loved the shit ot of it, and that's mainly because of Miles Teller. What an actor; he grounds the story in a nakedly emotional place that is a joy to watch and react to. He's a student drummer trying to become great while being bullied by his profanity spewing teacher (J K Simmons). Teller, who was also great last year in The Spectacular Now, is going to have a long career.

Birdman

I saw Birdman twice. First I wasn't impressed. I was too distracted by the intruding jazz score that I could not get into the story. I went back because I've liked every movie Alejandro G Innaritu has directed and because I suspected I might have missed something. Stories about actors are totally in my wheelhouse. And yes I liked it much better the second time around. Mainly a story of an actor in crisis about his position in the world and his legacy; its ideas about the pull between art and commerce are simplistic and nothing new. However the actors are great. And of course you've heard about the one take gimmick. That's pretty great too and definitely new and opens the story in spectacular ways allowing the scenes to breathe and the dialogue to settle. Michael Keaton in the lead is good and is matched mano a mano by an excellent Edward Norton as his nemesis. My two favorite scenes were when they both try to one up the other by showing what great actors they are. I wish the women had much to do. More women than men in this movie but they literally play : girlfriend, girfield, ex-wife, daughter and crazy old bitch critic. I enjoyed it more the second time once I accepted its heightened flights of fancy that were hard to swallow first time around. Fun but not profound.

Nightcrawler

Easily my favorite of the three. An insightful satire about the false American values of striving for success, it is also a hugely entertaining movie. The movie is bolstered by a bristiling committed performance by Jake Gyllenhaal as a man desperately needing success who finds work as a LA gonzo reporet specializing in videotaping crime scenes. He's matched by an on fire Rene Russo as a TV news reporter. They both come blazing at each other and a fantastic scene where they match wits is so good people will be talking about it after the movie ends. A lot of the drivel Gyllenhaal's character spews reminded me of many a nighmarish conversation I had in the hallways of corporate America. It sent a shiver down my spine. Nightcrawler brilliantly succeeds at what The Wolf of Wall Street tried to do last year; provide a biting critique of some of the values that make us lose our way. And in 2 hours no less; no excess with this movie.

A Birdman walks Into the Woods

Blunt with James Corden in Into the Woods

These two movies have nothing in common except they both dropped trailers today. And they star two actresses we are very fond of around these parts and who we think have yet to show their best. We are talking about charm machines Emily Blunt and Emma Stone.

Blunt is first up. We fell in love hard after The Devil Wears Prada (2006). Eight years later that remains our favorite performance of hers. Yes she was a charismatic and believable action star just this summer in Edge of Tomorrow (2014). But no movie has yet built on that promise in Prada. She's the number #1 reason we are excited about Into the Woods (2014). And that's a tall order since we consider Sondheim and Streep Gods. She's not in much of this teaser trailer, but we remain optimistic since The Baker's Wife is a plum part.



And now it's time for another lovely lady, Emma Stone.

Love this shot of Stone in Birdman

Stone has also not delivered on the promise of her early work in Easy A (2010). But at least she has become a global superstar thanks to the Spiderman reboot. She even made us watch those 2 movies just to see her. Stone is the type of actress whose snappy line delivery, warmth and chemistry with co-stars (she sizzles opposite Andrew Garfield) makes us wish Billy Wilder was still alive. Give us that The Apartment (1960) remake we don't need but would love if it starred Stone.

We are hoping her 1-2-3 punch of collaborating with Woody Allen, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Cameron Crowe will gave her the showcase she deserves. Well #1 didn't quite work out. While she was charming and got her own way with Allen's lines in Magic in the Moonlight (2014), the movie was minor Allen at best. Still there's his next movie in 12 more months. #3 was postponed to next year. So Mr. Inarritu our hopes are on your very capable shoulders.

Below is the second trailer from Birdman  and Stone gets to yell at Michael Keaton. Reportedly she's playing his recovering addict daughter. So maybe she gets to show range? Maybe she even gets her first Oscar nod? Hopes are high over here.




We have faith in both Blunt and Stone. Do you? Are you looking forward to these movies? What did you think of the trailers? Tell all in the comments.