Final OSCAR Nominations Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. Here are my final nominations in the top 8 categories:

Best Picture

Everyone agrees on the top 4, they have had consistent support everywhere. So had Dallas and Nebraska. Wolf surged late and it has its passionate supporters. Those are probably our nominees. Her has lots of love among critics and possibly younger AMPAS members, Blue Jasmine was embraced by actors, PGA and costumers so it is in if we go to 9. Banks is falling but it could rally if we get 10 nominees.

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• Nebraska
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• Her
• Blue Jasmine
• Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Leo gets in instead of Redford whose fortunes have been falling since getting snubbed by SAG. The other 4 - Ejjiofor, Dern, McConaughey and Hanks - got consistent support. I'd be thrilled if Oscar Isaac surprises.

• Bruce Dern  - Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio  - The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor  - 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey  - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

For the most of the season it looked like 5 previous winners - Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock and Thompson would be this year's list. Then August:Osage County opened and Meryl was pretty much dissed by everyone. Maybe there is such a thing as "Meryl fatigue". Adams will benefit from that : they love her and she's in an ascending likely best picture nominee.

• Amy Adams - American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett  - Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock - Gravity
• Judi Dench - Philomena
• Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Director

For the unique and beguiling world he created in Her, Spike Jonze will join the directors of the top 4 likely best picture nominees.

• Alfonso Cuaron  - Gravity
• Paul Greengrass  - Captain Phillips
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell - American Hustle

Supporting Actor

Gandolfini will surprise. Members will slip in the disk for Enough Said and find how sublime, funny and touching it is. And they will scribble Gandolfini's name on their ballots instead of Bradley Cooper and / or Jonah Hill. Bruhl is the only bright spot in his movie and will benefit from consistent mentions throughout the season. The other 3, Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, are in likely best picture nominees and have wide support.

• Daniel Bruhl - Rush
• Barhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
• Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
• James Gandolfini - Enough Said
• Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress

Similar to Adams and DiCaprio I'm relying on the surge evidenced by a BAFTA nomination to predict Hawkins. Plus her movie was embraced by PGA and usually a dominant lead performance will carry a supporting one on its coattails. It happened to Ethan Hawke in Training Day and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. If Meryl can't make it I don't see how Roberts does.

• Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb - Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Bob Nelson - Nebraska
• David O. Russell and Eric Singer - American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
• Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope - Philomena
• Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
• John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
• Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street

Her or All about the High Waist Pants

Phoenix with all those pants behind him

Spike Jonze's Her is unique. It is unlike any other movie I've seen this year - or any year for that matter. It is aesthetically beautiful, succeeding in building a complete "new" world. Architecture, clothes and above all how people communicate with each other. And it doesn't feel the need to fill you in on this world with tiring exposition. The viewer just discovers it as the movie goes along.

Set in Los Angeles sometime in the near future, it tells  the story of a lonely divorced man, Theodore Twombly (Joaquin Phoenix) who falls in love with his "computer" or as it's called in the movie operating system that calls itself Samantha, played by the disembodied voice of Scarlett Johannson. The story features Theodore's interactions with his best friend Amy (Amy Adams), his ex wife (Rooney Mara) and one disastrous date with a unhinged woman (Olivia Wilde).

The movie is funny, sad, lyrical, honest, gorgeous, all at once. It works on so many levels and is compulsively watchable and enchanting at all times. What I loved about it is that it worked as a reflection of dating in this age where we interact online and meet people virtually first. Online chemistry doesn't always translate to real life, to state the obvious. We project huge fantasies into others, setting ourselves up for huge disappointments. Her riffs brilliantly on this theme. From the phone sex encounter that goes wrong - "Choke me with the dead cat" must be the funniest line in a 2013 movie - to the date with Wilde's character to the love story Theodore and Samantha .

Phoenix and Mara in happier times

The film also flashes back brilliantly to Theodore's past marriage. In a few very economical scenes it gives us that relationship and what it means to fall in love young and grow up together but grow apart as a result of growing up. It illuminates how every time you fall in love you carry baggage from previous relationships and that that is not a bad thing. The juxtaposition between the old relationship and the new one with Samantha is what I loved most. Theodore is able to understand what happened in the past and his ex - played brilliantly by Mara in an obvious homage to Jonze's ex Sofia Coppola - has a strong reaction to the implausible love between a man and his OS. She is angry, hurt and of course bewildered but mostly understands why Theodore loves Samantha. While it's very brief this is most realistic relationship in the movie. Theodore talks about it so eloquently and I couldn't help but wonder if this is an olive branch from Jonze to Coppola.

All the actors are impeccable. I wasn't a huge fan of Phoenix's "look at me" big acting in The Master despite admiring the commitment. He's very different here, introspective, quite, funny and definitely more affecting. Adams is lovely as a woman discovering more about herself and Mara is giving possibly her most recognizably honest performance. Johansson does all she can to create a character with her voice and succeeds. Although part of me wishes we didn't get such a recognizable voice to play this part.

Production design, cinematography and costumes are all top notch. I particularly liked the costumes, very beautiful and fit the world the movie was trying to create. All hail high waist pants!

While I think it's a beautiful unique world and story that I know I will visit many more times, I don't think it's an unqualified success. While part of the resolution is fantastic I couldn't relate to some aspects of the sci-fi love story. I admired Jonze's attempt to create Theodore and Samantha on equal footing but didn't entirely relate to the latter's arc. It works best as a story about growing up and discovering more about ourselves and what that does to our relationships. Theodore, his ex, Samantha and Amy all grow up resulting in them reevaluating their relationships.