Golden Globe Predictions and Wishes

Happy Golden Globes day! I will love this year's edition no matter what because it gave us the headline "Carol Leads Golden Globes Nominations". As it should be.


Cate has three but I'm hoping for a fourth

My biggest wish - apart from couture, couture, couture - is that we get a lot of surprises. Hey Globes just embrace your inner star fuckery and vote for Cate Blanchett, Kate Winslet and Jennifer Lawrence and throw this awards season unto more disarray.

Here are my predictions and wishes.

Best Motion Picture Drama
Winner: Spotlight
Alternate: Mad Max: Fury Road
My Wish: Carol

Best Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: The Big Short
Alternate: The Martian
My Wish : Spy.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Alternate: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
My Wish : None

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Matt Damon, The Martian
Alternate: Christian Bale, The Big Short
My Wish : I guess Damon... I don't really care.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Drama)
Winner: Brie Larson, Room
Alternate: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
My Wish : A tie between Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara for Carol

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture (Comedy/Musical)
Winner: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Alternate: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
My Wish : Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Alternate: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
My Wish : Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Winner: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Alternate: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
My Wish : Winslet or Jane Fonda (Youth). I want surprises, dammit!

Best Director
Winner: Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alternate: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
My Wish : Todd Haynes, Carol. Duh!

Best Screenplay
Winner: Spotlight
Alternate: The Big Short
My Wish : Carol is not nominated so whatever. Just not Quentin Tarantino, please.

Best Animated Feature Film
Winner: Inside Out
Alternate: Anomalisa
My Wish : Inside Out ie. the only nominated film I saw.

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Son of Saul
Alternate: Mustang
My Wish : Mustang.

Best Original Score
Winner: Carol
Alternate: The Hateful Eight
My Wish : Carol

Best Original Song
Winner: One Kind of Love, Love and Mercy
Alternate: Writing's On the Wall, Spectre
My Wish : Any really as long as it's not the dreadful Spectre theme. How did that get nominated?

Final OSCAR Nominations Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. Here are my final nominations in the top 8 categories:

Best Picture

Everyone agrees on the top 4, they have had consistent support everywhere. So had Dallas and Nebraska. Wolf surged late and it has its passionate supporters. Those are probably our nominees. Her has lots of love among critics and possibly younger AMPAS members, Blue Jasmine was embraced by actors, PGA and costumers so it is in if we go to 9. Banks is falling but it could rally if we get 10 nominees.

• 12 Years a Slave
• American Hustle
• Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• Nebraska
• Dallas Buyers Club
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• Her
• Blue Jasmine
• Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Leo gets in instead of Redford whose fortunes have been falling since getting snubbed by SAG. The other 4 - Ejjiofor, Dern, McConaughey and Hanks - got consistent support. I'd be thrilled if Oscar Isaac surprises.

• Bruce Dern  - Nebraska
• Leonardo DiCaprio  - The Wolf of Wall Street
• Chiwetel Ejiofor  - 12 Years a Slave
• Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
• Matthew McConaughey  - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress

For the most of the season it looked like 5 previous winners - Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock and Thompson would be this year's list. Then August:Osage County opened and Meryl was pretty much dissed by everyone. Maybe there is such a thing as "Meryl fatigue". Adams will benefit from that : they love her and she's in an ascending likely best picture nominee.

• Amy Adams - American Hustle
• Cate Blanchett  - Blue Jasmine
• Sandra Bullock - Gravity
• Judi Dench - Philomena
• Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Director

For the unique and beguiling world he created in Her, Spike Jonze will join the directors of the top 4 likely best picture nominees.

• Alfonso Cuaron  - Gravity
• Paul Greengrass  - Captain Phillips
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
• David O. Russell - American Hustle

Supporting Actor

Gandolfini will surprise. Members will slip in the disk for Enough Said and find how sublime, funny and touching it is. And they will scribble Gandolfini's name on their ballots instead of Bradley Cooper and / or Jonah Hill. Bruhl is the only bright spot in his movie and will benefit from consistent mentions throughout the season. The other 3, Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, are in likely best picture nominees and have wide support.

• Daniel Bruhl - Rush
• Barhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
• Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
• James Gandolfini - Enough Said
• Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress

Similar to Adams and DiCaprio I'm relying on the surge evidenced by a BAFTA nomination to predict Hawkins. Plus her movie was embraced by PGA and usually a dominant lead performance will carry a supporting one on its coattails. It happened to Ethan Hawke in Training Day and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. If Meryl can't make it I don't see how Roberts does.

• Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
• Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
• Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
• June Squibb - Nebraska
• Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay

• Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
• Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
• Spike Jonze - Her
• Bob Nelson - Nebraska
• David O. Russell and Eric Singer - American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay

• Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
• Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope - Philomena
• Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
• John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
• Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street

Is it Hair or American Hustle

American Hustle is big and shiny and has enough interesting elements that it made me think it was a good movie. But after two days of rumination I now think it doesn't quite jell together as a fully formed piece despite a few interesting vignettes.

As for the performances they are a mixed bag. Bradley Cooper is plain bad despite having a full and interesting character arc. Although he has one great bit - a moment of indignant triumph. Amy Adams can't make sense of a terribly underwritten part, it might possibly be the worst she's ever been on screen. I was hugely disappointed in Adams as I usually like her. Where's the fire from her previous collaboration with Russell in The Fighter? Christian Bale was all accent, gut and hair (or lack there of), exterior and surprisingly thin non-affecting performance.

Faring better are Jennifer Lawrence and Jeremy Renner. Lawrence's magnetism rises above the meandering script to provide a couple of very entertaining scenes. She is bombastic and blows off even the usually intense Bale in their scenes together. Renner underplays to success and his scenes with Elizabeth Rohm, who plays his wife, have an endearing casual warmth.

The movie was still watchable despite being more bad than good. Best would be to find Lawrence's couple of scenes - including the lip lock with Adams and her over the top rendition of "Live and Let Die" - on youtube. Or just look at pictures; the hair is the most interesting element after all.

Oscar Season Chat : Best Supporting Actress

Jose and I talk about Best Supporting Actress, as we do at this time of the year.

Oprah in The Butler

Murtada: So Jose our favorite time of the year, Awards Season is almost here. Can’t wait to see all the couture gowns but let’s start with who we think is going to be invited. I think most prognosticators agree on Oprah Winfrey (The Butler) and Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave) for best supporting actress. I loved Oprah and thought she was the best thing in her movie. She was surprisingly subtle and gave a fun flirty – dare I say it – even sexy performance. While it’s hard to suppress her larger than life persona and the baggage that brings with, I thought she was convincing as an everyday woman. She even gets a big Oscar clip moment – you know the slap heard around all the movie screens “everything you are and everything you have is because of that butler”. Lee Daniels is really a fantastic actress director – Monique, Gabby, Nicole and now Oprah, who knew?

As for Lupita a she is what everybody wants to talk about the minute her movie ends. It’s a great part – sympathetic, soulful and very touching – but her performance is fantastic too. And let’s not forget the Cinderella factor – everybody loves a newcomer who just hits it out of the park. I think she can go all the way, and if she starts winning early there is no stopping her.

So what are your thoughts on Oprah and Lupita? Who else do you think will be nominated?

Jose: Unlike the rest of the world I simply don’t get Oprah. I never got her as a celebrity and I certainly don’t get her as an actress. Other than respecting her for being a powerful woman, I don’t see what’s so special about her and I was once again scratching my head about what was so special about her in this movie. My major problem is that to me she never stopped being Oprah (it didn’t help that at one point a woman screamed “show that ratchet bitch, Oprah!” to the screen while everyone else cheered) and therefore, if everyone in the theater was thinking the same, I can’t consider it good acting. She distracted me from the story more than anything.

Lupita is perfect and there’s nothing more I can say about her without gushing.  I guess the most surprising thing about her performance is that it’s her first film! Apparently Yale trains great actors…I have never liked predicting who will be nominated, there are people who do this much better (and care more about it too) so I’ll have to plead the fifth for that one. Now if you asked me who were my favorites that would be a game I’d like even more…

Nyong'o and Woodard in 12 Years a Slave

Murtada: I like predicting so I’ll predict one more: June Squibb in Nebraska. I personally didn’t care much for the performance and found it one note. However she gets the best lines and wrings genuine hearty laughs out of them so she’s in. And another Cinderella story albeit a different one – the veteran toiling away on the sidelines for too long until she finally gets a big part.

But let’s talk favorites; we both loved Sally Hawkins in Blue Jasmine – her “curtsie” moment when introduced to Alec Baldwin is an example of a gem of a performance full of such quirky, lovely moments. She managed to be noticed against the full force of Cate’s dominating Jasmine. Lea Seydoux – sex on a stick in Blue is the Warmest Color and Alfre Woodard providing the only bit of levity in 12 Years and nailing her one scene with a funny and lived in performance. 12 Years is chock full of fantastic performances including Adepero Oduye who I thought was a bit too hysterical the first time I saw it. However by my second viewing I was impressed by the honesty she brought to her deep despair. Also Julianne Moore finally waking up from her long nap of a decade of uninspiring performances to bring heart and soul to Don Jon. Clearly JGL inspires her.

Your turn to gush about some lovely ladies……..

Jennifer Lawrence in American Hustle

Jose: I’ve yet to see Nebraska so I’ll hold my thoughts on June for now. I see your Alfre and raise you a Sarah Paulson. Her performance was absolutely chilling and she’s been on such a roll lately with Game Change and all those awful American Horror Story-s where she’s the only one worried in seeing beyond camp and delivering performances with any real human traits.

In terms of awards, I don’t think any of my favorites in anything (other than Queen Cate) will be nominated for anything this year, so indulge me as I stray from awards specific talk, into favorites of the year talk...I loved, loved, loved Kristin Scott Thomas in Only God Forgives (the scene in the restaurant!), Jennifer Garner in Dallas Buyers Club (the only one who wasn’t “ACTING!” in that movie), Amy Adams in Her, Joanna Scanlan in The Invisible Woman (weeks later I can’t stop thinking about her character), Michaela Watkins in In a World..., Vera Farmiga in The Conjuring (my go-to exorcist from now on), Janet McTeer in Hannah Arendt, Emma Watson in The Bling Ring and Octavia Spencer in Fruitvale Station (talk about someone who can do a lot with a small part) with my absolute favorite so far this year being Cameron Diaz in The Counselor.

But yeah, the number of nominees coming out of that pool will be minus all of them, except for Octavia maybe...Granted, I’ve yet to see Julia and J.Law in their movies and I’m expecting them to impress me as usual.

Murtada : I'm excited for American Hustle and August Osage County too. Although I’m more about Margo Martindale maybe finally finding a fantastic big screen role. Also Naomie Harris got a lot of raves in Toronto but I can’t say I’m looking forward to Mandela as that trailer is dullsville but I hope it leads to bigger things for her.  And how could you not mention your girl Rooney Mara in Her , her Sofia Coppola was dead on. I think it’s a great year for this category.

Any final thoughts?

Jose: I love Rooney but even I am objective sometimes. I did forget to mention how impressed I was by Eva Mendes in “The Place Beyond the Pines” though.  I can’t think of anything other than that...

Oscar Season Bits & Pieces - Best Actress

Emmanuelle Riva

The Hollywood Reporter has released its annual Actress Round table which means that Oscar season is now in full swing. I always look forward to those because Best Actress is always my favourite category. This year looks to be a strong one; there are so many good movies already released and a couple of big mega movies just around the corner.

Let's dig by each category, the major ones of course. I'll provide my take and predictions. Let's start with  :

Best Actress - coming up Best Actor and  Best Supporting Actor
My vote goes to Emmanuelle Riva in Amour. What a performance : heartbreaking and full of moving melancholy and surprising strength. I hope she gets nominated. Going against her is that it's a foreign language film and even people who love it acknowledge that it is a difficult movie to sit through. It deals with inevitable decay, old age and death after all. Going for her is that everyone who sees the movie comes out marvelling at the performance.

Jennifer Lawrence

The pundits world would have you believe that Jennifer Lawrence is the front runner. I don't believe it. Don't get me wrong; I think Lawrence is the best thing about Silver Linings Playbook. I wanted to see more of her character; and therein lies the problem. It's a supporting role really. The story is Bradley Cooper's and she's there as his love interest. She's much better than him but because of how little she gets to do I don't think it's an Oscar winning performance. She has the big speech in her money scene and for that she'll be nominated. However even that speech's payoff is not emotional enough in my opinion. It kick starts the plot for the last third of the movie but does not affect the characters lives in a major way. I understand that Hollywood wants to reward her for The Hunger Games, she's young, hot and a box office draw. Still can't see this performance wining Best Actress.

Jessica Chastain

 I think this will be a match between Naomi Watts in The Impossible and Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty.Details of how big and central to the plot Chastain's role have just emerged. That got a lot of excitement. She has momentum from last year, not only for the nomination from The Help but for all the other movies she appeared in. Everyone acknowledges her as The Next Big Actress, set to join Meryl, Kate and Cate as a perennial Oscar nominee. Watts has lots of goodwill from her previous nomination plus she apparently gives a big emotional performance, suffers and cries a lot. Which she is fantastic at and why she was nominated for 21 Grams. A lot of people still talk about Mulholland Drive a decade after it was released, so lots of goodwill there. The problem with The Impossible is that the trailer is too manipulative, it dares you not to tear up. Is there a good movie behind that? Will people show up for suffering porn? If yes she will be unstoppable.

Marion Cotillard

Marion Cotillard is getting raves for Rust and Bone. I'll see it Friday, then I can make an informed decision. Although so far what I read seems to mixed with more praise going to her co-star  Matthias Schoenaerts. There is also young Quevenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild. She carries that unique lyrical movie on her little shoulders and for that she wil be rewarded. Keira Knightely is very good as Anna Karenina as she has been in her last few movies. But the response to that movie has been sharply divided. I loved it, it worked for me. 

Emayatzy Corinealdi

There are a few performances that are not getting much attention but are still amazing. Emayatzy Corinealdi gives a subtle piercing performance in Middle of Nowhere and announces herself as a major talent. Kirsten Dunst is all brittle edges and angry frustration in Bachelorette taking a highly unlikeable character , making her human while being very funny. And the most likeable celebrity presence on twitter, Melanie Lynskey,  gives a touching performance in Hello I Must Be Going. She made me palpably feel her disappointment and then her quiet resolve and tentative hope.

Predicted 5 : Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quevenzhane Wallis, Naomi Watts.

Who do you think will be nominated? Tell all in the comments.