Sunday, January 31, 2010
My Oscar Predictions
OK, this is a very exciting Oscar race. A few of the big categories are still with no clear front runner, Avatar vs Hurt Locker, Bigelow vs Cameron and Bullock vs Streep. Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz look like sure fire winners, but at least one spot is up for grabs in each of their categories. Here's who I think will be nominated Tuesday morning in the 8 big categories:
Invictus should make it although it baffles me why. I'm thinking The Messenger and A Serious Man will just miss out and District 9 and Star Trek make it as they did at the PGA. The other 7 are shoo-ins.
The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Love this category. Love these movies. Love these 5. So different yet each one a game changer.
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds
Easiest category to guess. The SAG 5 will repeat. Only spoiler could be Emily Blunt instead of Mirren.
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julia
Another easy one, the SAG 5 should repeat here too. Although Viggo Mortensen or Ben Foster might surprise. Remember Tommy Lee Jones nom out of left field 2 years ago with no precursors? Even Sharlto Copley could get in. Freeman looking vulnerable but will slide in.
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Best Supporting Actress:
Does it matter who the other four are? Mo'Nique is deservedly going to win this. The ladies of Nine will be completely shut out and I'm betting that those who voted Inglorious for best ensemble at the SAG awards are going to reward Laurent with a nom in place of Julianne Moore.
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Melanie Laurent - Inglorious Basterds
Samantha Morton - The Messenger
Mo'Nique - Precious
Best Supporting Actor:
All those folks who have been discovering and falling in love with The Hurt Locker are going to vote for Mackie. Sorry Matt, you should've been nominated for The Informant! anyway.
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Anthony Mackie - The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay
Crazy Heart will prove more than just the Bridges show in this category. The other 4 will be best pic nominees.
An Education - Nick Hornby
Crazy Heart - Scott Cooper
Disctrict 9 - Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
Precious - Geoffrey Fletcher
Up in the Air - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner
Best Original Screenplay
This is where those passionate lovers of (500) Days will reward it. The Hangover could surprise big time in this category but I'm betting no.
(500) Days of Summer - Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Webber
The Hurt Locker - Mark Boal
Inglorious Basterds - Quentin Tarantino
A Serious Man - Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Up - Pete Docter and Bob Peterson