Oscar!

It's that time again. Here are my final Oscar predictions.

The best picture / best director split will happen again for the third year running. With all the love Birdman got from the industry via the guilds awards I think it will win picture and Richard Linklater's 12 years odyssey will be seen as a unique and major accomplishment so he wins best director.

Best Picture
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: Boyhood

Best Directing
Winner: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Alternate: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman

Yes Redmayne won almost every precursor but it a feeling I have that they'd want to reward the veteran.

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Winner: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Alternate: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

My vote goes to Cotillard for a performance that will stand test of time and be studied by actors seeking to understand how to become one with  character. Moore will win and is a worthy winner.

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Winner: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Alternate: Marion Cotillard, Two Days One Night

Mark Ruffalo is head and shoulders above the rest here. He gives the classic supporting performance in that he deepens the leads' performances by bringing a grounded warmth that the movie doesn't work without. But Simmons it is. Whatever Teller ruled that movie but flashy wins. 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Winner: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Alternate: Edward Norton, Birdman

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Winner: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Alternate: Emma Stone, Birdman

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Birdman

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Winner: The Imitation Game
Alternate: Whiplash


Best Animated Feature
Winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Alternate: Big Hero 6

Best Foreign Language Film
Winner: Ida
Alternate: Timbuktu

Best Documentary Feature
Winner: Citizenfour
Alternate: Virunga

Best Documentary Short
Winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Alternate: Joanna

Best Short Film (Animated)
Winner: The Dam Keeper
Alternate: A Single Life 

Best Short Film (Live Action)
Winner: The Phone Call
Alternate: Parvaneh


Best Music (Original Score)
Winner: The Theory of Everything
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Music (Original Song)
Winner: "Glory", Selma
Alternate: "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glenn Campbell: I'll Be Me

Best Film Editing
Winner: Boyhood
Alternate: Whiplash

Best Cinematography
Winner: Birdman
Alternate: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Art Direction
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: The Imitation Game

Best Costume Design
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Into the Woods

Best Makeup
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alternate: Foxcatcher

Best Sound Mixing
Winner: Whiplash
Alternate: American Sniper

Best Sound Editing
Winner: American Sniper
Alternate: Birdman

Best Visual Effects
Winner: Interstellar 
Alternate: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Oscar Nominations Predictions

The big question this year is Selma. Much has been made about its lack of love by awards bodies so far. Screeners weren't sent. It opened too late. Paramount's priority was Interstellar. I think it boils down to the obvious, people who vote for these things just don't care that much for the movie. They might admire what it says about the Civil Rights movement or its relevance to what's happening around; but there's no passion to vote it best of the year. I'm thinking it gets Best Pic and Best Song.

Elsewhere I excpect Ralph Fiennes to make it instead of Steve Carrell/David Oyelowo/Bradley Cooper. Jennifer Aniston will be an Oscar nominee and AMPAS will continue ignoring Marion Cotillard's superior career post her 2007 win.

I'm predicting that Emma Stone, Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton and Wes Anderson will become Oscar nominees for the first time while Meryl Streep will get her 19th nomination.

Pedictions I'm not sure of include Wild for Adapted Screenplay, Morten Tyldum for Directing, Rene Russo for Supporting Actress and Timbuktu in Foreign Language Film.


Best Picture
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Boyhood
04. Gone Girl
05. The Grand Budapest Hotel
06. The Imitation Game
07. Selma
08. The Theory of Everything
09. Whiplash

Best Directing
01. Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman
02. Richard Linklater, Boyhood
03. Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
05. Damien Chazelle, Whiplash

Best Actor in a Leading Role
01. Michael Keaton, Birdman
02. Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
04. Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
05. Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Best Actress in a Leading Role
01. Jennifer Aniston, Cake
02. Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
03. Julianne Moore, Still Alice
04. Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
05. Reese Witherspoon, Wild

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
01. Edward Norton, Birdman
02. Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
03. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
04. Robert Duvall, The Judge
05. J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
01. Emma Stone, Birdman
02. Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
03. Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
04. Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
05. Rene Russo, Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Original Screenplay)
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. Foxcatcher
04. The Grand Budapest Hotel
05. Nightcrawler

Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Imitation Game
03. The Theory of Everything
04. Whiplash
05. Wild

---

Best Animated Feature
01. Big Hero 6
02. The Boxtrolls
03. How to Train Your Dragon 2
04. The LEGO Movie
05. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

Best Foreign Language Film
01. Ida
02. Force Majeure
03. Leviathan
04. Timbuktu
05. Wild Tales

Best Documentary Feature
01. CITIZENFOUR
02. Last Days in Vietnam
03. Keep On Keeping'On
04. Life Itself
05. Virunga

---

Best Music (Original Score)
01. Gone Girl
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. The Imitation Game
04. Interstellar
05. The Theory of Everything

Best Music (Original Song)
01. "Lost Stars", Begin Again
02. "I'm Not Gonna Miss You", Glen Campbell: I'll Be Me
03. "Everything Is Awesome", The LEGO Movie
04. "Mercy Is", Noah 
05. "Glory", Selma 

Best Film Editing
01. Birdman
02. Boyhood
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel
04. The Imitation Game
05. Whiplash

Best Cinematography
01. Birdman
02. The Grand Budapest Hotel
03. Ida
04. Mr. Turner
05. Unbroken 

Best Art Direction 
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Interstellar
04. Into the Woods
05. Mr. Turner 

Best Costume Design
01. The Grand Budapest Hotel
02. The Imitation Game
03. Into the Woods
04. Mr. Turner
05. Selma

Best Makeup
01. Foxcatcher
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Sound Mixing
01. American Sniper
02. Birdman
03. Into the Woods
05. Unbroken
06. Whiplash

Best Sound Editing
01. American Sniper
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar 
05. Unbroken

Best Visual Effects
01. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
02. Guardians of the Galaxy
03. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
04. Interstellar
05. Transformers: Age of Extinction

Updated Oscar Predictions

So much has happened since our last update. Toronto put Julianne Moore at the top of the best actress category. Fury opened and proved it won't compete for Oscar. Gone Girl became a HUGE hit. So let's dive in.

(All predictions in likelyhood of getting nominated).

Best Film

Fury is out, added Into the Woods since the featurette dropped today is to die for. Gone Girl soldified its spot. I'm iffy about Foxcatcher but I'll keep it in for time being.

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Interstellar
The Theory of Everything
Unbroken
Into the Woods
Selma
Foxcatcher

Alternates:
A Most Violent Year
Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Pike is rising with the huge box office of Gone Girl. Sight unseen so is Moore based on the HUGE buzz out of Toronto. Witherspoon is quiet till the movie opens in early December where she'll pick up more heat. Blunt is apparently the lead in Into the Woods. My vote - and hope - goes to Cotillard who is again fantastic in Two Days One Night.

Julianne Moore - Still Alice
Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Felicity Jones - The Theory of Everything
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year

Alternates:
Marion Cotillard - Two Days One Night  
Amy Adams - Big Eyes

Best Actor

Who's #4 and #5? I can't stand Eastwood and the premise of that movie is so macho and ra-ra Americana that I'm hating sight unseen so I'm not adding. Yes I have biases. I'm certain on my top 3 and despite all pundits saying it's a stacked year I can hardly find 5 to get excited about. Wishing Jake Gylenhaal or the guys from Love is Strange had a chance.

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Steve Carrell - Foxcatcher


Alternates:
Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher    
Ralph Fiennes - Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Supporting Actress

Our Grand Lady Meryl is getting nominated. For now I'm keeping her in this category since that's how she'll be campaigned but I think they'll want their favorite in the more prestigous category.

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman
Laura Dern - Wild


Alternates:
Jessica Chastain - Interstellar 
Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Boring as usual. Who is Miyavi? Maybe getting an answer to that question will make this category interesting. 

J K Simmons - Whiplash
Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Ethan Hawke - Boyhood
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice


Alternates:
Miyavi - Unbroken       
Robert Duvall - The Judge

Best Director

Will we have 2 women in the category for the first time? Not ready to call that yet.

Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Christopher Nolan - Interstellar
David Fincher - Gone Girl
Alejandro G Innaritu - Birdman
Morten Tyldum - The Imitation Game


Alternates: 
Angelina Jolie - Unbroken       
Ava DuVernay - Selma

First Stab at Oscar Nominations

As the Telluride Film Festival kicks off in Colorado, here is my stab at first guess Oscar Nominations. Presented in likelyhood to be nominated.

Best Film

Boyhood
Birdman
The Imitation Game
Gone Girl
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Selma
Unbroken
The Theory of Everything
Fury

Alternates - A Most Violent Year, Into the Woods, Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Actress

Rosamund Pike - Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon - Wild
Jessica Chastain - The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Amy Adams - Big Eyes
Meryl Streep - Into the Woods

Alternate - Julianne Moore - Maps to the Stars

Best Actor

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Imitation Game
Steve Carrel - Foxcatcher
Michael Keaton - Birdman
David Oyelowo - Selma
Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

Alternate  Channing Tatum - Foxcatcher

Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette - Boyhood
Jessica Chastain - A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley - The Imitation Game
Emily Blunt - Into the Woods
Emma Stone  - Birdman

Alternate - Laura Dern - Wild       Carmen Ejogo - Selma

Best Supporting Actor

Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher
Ed Norton - Birdman
Josh Brolin - Inherent Vice
Tom Wilkinson - Selma
J K Simmons - Whiplash

Alternate - Robert Duvall - The Judge

Boyhood (2014) - Review

Ellar Coltrane as Mason Jr.

What can I say about Boyhood (2014) after the whole world has proclaimed it a masterpiece. I was skeptical about it before I saw it. Called it condescendingly a "hipster" movie. Can't even define what that means. But I guess it's a movie for a certain kind of audience. I shouldn't have been dismissive and form opinions without watching the movie. But when something is universally lauded the contrarian in me comes alive.

Now after I've seen it I have to admit that I enjoyed it. Some moments were very moving. Do I like it? Yes. Do I consider it a good movie? Probably. A great one? Absolutely not.

Boyhood is the story of a divorced couple and their two young children (Ellar Coltrane as Mason Jr, and Lorelei Linklater as Samantha) as they grow into young adulthood while living with the mother (Patricia Arquette) and getting frequent visits from the father (Ethan Hawke). The bold audacious stroke is that it was shot over a period of 12 years so we get to the passage of time as these characters, and the actors playing them, grow older.

That's obviously a unique way of telling this story that immediately gives it heart and pathos beyond its simple light beats. It is very moving to watch the passage of time; to see people grow up and come into their own, to see hope and disappointment and the curves life throws. It is doubly moving when presented this way. However beyond this admittedly genius stroke there was not a lot to the story. It is clearly a Linklater movie in that it is generous to most of its characters, well observed with nothing overtly dramatic happening. However we get a tender movie, a 'slice of life" narrative.

And this should be enough for a good movie. But I wasn't convinced. I was moved, I enjoyed it and despite the almost 3 hour length was never bored. But I wanted more. A more profound look at life. A more nuanced attempt at interpreting this story. More visual flair. Something more. I wanted the movie to floor me, amaze me, shake me. But that is not Linklater's style. That is not this movie. And so I resigned myself and decided to enjoy what was on offer.

Arquette

And there's much to enjoy. Every scene is beautifully observed and flows naturally and seamlessly. Arquette is given a complex character and she dives in whole heartedly and delivers beautiful work in spades. While I think the movie is a bit hard on her character - giving her all the hardship and stupid decisions to deal with while Hawke's character roams freely being "cool" - it also gives her the dramatic arc and her performance is never less than engaging. Coltrane is fine within the parameters of the story but he's not a vivid presence on screen.

I highly recommend Boyhood. It is a unique movie experience and for that it should be applauded. I just wish there was more to it.

Have you seen Boyhood? What did you think? Tell all in the comments.