Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Final OSCAR Nominations Predictions

The Oscar nominations are announced tomorrow. Here are my final nominations in the top 8 categories:

Best Picture
Everyone agrees on the top 4, they have had consistent support everywhere. So had Dallas and Nebraska. Wolf surged late and it has its passionate supporters. Those are probably our nominees. Her has lots of love among critics and possibly younger AMPAS members, Blue Jasmine was embraced by actors, PGA and costumers so it is in if we go to 9. Banks is falling but it could rally if we get 10 nominees.
  • 12 Years a Slave
  • American Hustle
  • Gravity
  • Captain Phillips
  • Nebraska
  • Dallas Buyers Club
  • The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Her
  • Blue Jasmine
  • Saving Mr. Banks

Best Actor

Leo gets in instead of Redford whose fortunes have been falling since getting snubbed by SAG. The other 4 - Ejjiofor, Dern, McConaughey and Hanks - got consistent support. I'd be thrilled if Oscar Isaac surprises.

  • Bruce Dern  - Nebraska
  • Leonardo DiCaprio  - The Wolf of Wall Street
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor  - 12 Years a Slave
  • Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips
  • Matthew McConaughey  - Dallas Buyers Club

Best Actress
For the most of the season it looked like 5 previous winners - Blanchett, Streep, Dench, Bullock and Thompson would be this year's list. Then August:Osage County opened and Meryl was pretty much dissed by everyone. Maybe there is such a thing as "Meryl fatigue". Adams will benefit from that : they love her and she's in an ascending likely best picture nominee.
  • Amy Adams - American Hustle
  • Cate Blanchett  - Blue Jasmine
  • Sandra Bullock - Gravity
  • Judi Dench - Philomena
  • Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks

Best Director
For the unique and beguiling world he created in Her, Spike Jonze will join the directors of the top 4 likely best picture nominees.
  • Alfonso Cuaron  - Gravity
  • Paul Greengrass  - Captain Phillips
  • Spike Jonze - Her
  • Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave
  • David O. Russell - American Hustle

Supporting Actor
Gandolfini will surprise. Members will slip in the disk for Enough Said and find how sublime, funny and touching it is. And they will scribble Gandolfini's name on their ballots instead of Bradley Cooper and / or Jonah Hill. Bruhl is the only bright spot in his movie and will benefit from consistent mentions throughout the season. The other 3, Leto, Fassbender, Abdi, are in likely best picture nominees and have wide support.
  • Daniel Bruhl - Rush
  • Barhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
  • Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
  • James Gandolfini - Enough Said
  • Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress
Similar to Adams and DiCaprio I'm relying on the surge evidenced by a BAFTA nomination to predict Hawkins. Plus her movie was embraced by PGA and usually a dominant lead performance will carry a supporting one on its coattails. It happened to Ethan Hawke in Training Day and Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart. If Meryl can't make it I don't see how Roberts does.
  • Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
  • Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
  • Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave
  • June Squibb - Nebraska
  • Oprah Winfrey - Lee Daniels' The Butler

Best Original Screenplay
  • Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
  • Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - Inside Llewyn Davis
  • Spike Jonze - Her
  • Bob Nelson - Nebraska
  • David O. Russell and Eric Singer - American Hustle

Best Adapted Screenplay
  • Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight
  • Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope - Philomena
  • Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
  • John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
  • Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street

No comments: